DENVER — To Royce or not to Royce? That is the question.
The playoffs are almost here, which means it’s decision time for the Minnesota Twins’ front office. With their opponent still to be determined — though it’s looking like the defending champion Houston Astros as of this writing — the most prominent calls concern the health statuses of Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, as well as whether the Twins would opt for 15 position players and 11 pitchers or a 14/12 split.
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Earlier this weekend, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey hinted they may opt for a 14/12 split. Choosing that option could mean the Twins don’t have space for Buxton, whose status seems less certain than Lewis or Carlos Correa.
Lewis seems likely to return to action after sustaining a Grade 1-plus hamstring strain on Sept. 21. Whether the Twins would want to immediately use him in the field is perhaps the biggest debate, given the questions about how he’d handle coming in on slow rollers at third base. He could serve as the designated hitter, with Edouard Julien at second base and Jorge Polanco at third base.
With all of that in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman project the Twins’ playoff roster.
Catchers (2)
In: Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers
Others in consideration: None
Hayes: Sorry to devastate you with the whole 14/12 split, sir. We both wanted 15/11. But them’s the breaks. Even though the Twins know that none of the wild-card teams used more than 10 pitchers last year, they’re likely taking 12.
I know this is the catcher’s section, but I’m going to let you talk about the playing time split since there’s really nothing else to mention here other than the Twins are in good hands with the Jeffers-Vázquez combo.
Gleeman: We discussed this in our previous playoff roster projection two weeks ago, so I won’t rehash all the details, but I’d personally choose 10 pitchers for a three-game series before I’d go with 12. The odds of needing an eighth reliever, let alone a ninth reliever, are just so slim unless it’s already gone off the rails. With that said, no one should be shocked that the Twins value (or perhaps over-value) emergency pitching depth.
As far as the catcher playing time, Jeffers has outplayed Vázquez all season, usually by a pretty wide margin. With that said, there’s almost no chance the Twins will start any catcher three days in a row, so the decision comes down to who starts the first and third games. Pablo López and Joe Ryan had better numbers when paired with Jeffers, while Sonny Gray’s splits were pretty neutral, so it’s seemingly an obvious choice to go with Jeffers twice and Vázquez once.
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Jeffers ranks third among MLB catchers in OPS and leads Twins position players in Wins Above Replacement this season, which is a helluva turnaround after last year’s struggles. He deserves two starts.
Infielders (7)
In: Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer
Others in consideration: None
Gleeman: The news on Lewis’ progress is super encouraging even if he’s limited to DH duties. While they’re a better team with him at third base, that takes a clear backseat to needing his bat in the middle of the lineup. Julien has improved a lot at second base and Polanco is mostly fine at third. And my guess is the Twins finish games they lead with Polanco back at second and Farmer at third anyway.
Correa’s status is a huge question mark. It’s always been assumed he’d return for the playoffs, and that looks all but certain now, but what version of him are the Twins going to get? He’s struggled all season offensively and started to miss some plays in the field prior to being shut down. Everything we’ve been told about plantar fasciitis is that a couple of weeks off won’t fix anything, so we’ll see if “October Correa” is stronger than “Heel That Really Hurts.”
Hayes: The real concern in my mind is what the layoff will do to Correa and Lewis at the plate. Lewis does seem to possess an uncanny knack for making a splash right when he returns to the lineup. Correa, regardless of his struggles this season, is going to provide a hard-fought, professional at-bat. And, they’ve both been seeing live pitching in simulated games, facing Jorge Alcalá and Jordan Balazovic, among others.
But 10-plus days off is a long time to go between hitting in a game environment. Earlier this season we saw what long layoffs could do to Max Kepler, Buxton and Polanco. In a best-of-three series, there isn’t much time for rest. What Correa and Lewis do to combat that could make a big difference in the series.
Outfielders (5)
In: Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, Andrew Stevenson
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Others in consideration: Byron Buxton, Jordan Luplow, Trevor Larnach
Hayes: I’m going to do the polite thing and leave Buxton for you. The Luplow versus Stevenson question will be determined by the matchup. Were the Twins to face Texas or Toronto, Luplow’s right-handed bat could make his way onto the roster because those teams feature plenty of left-handed pitching.
If not, let’s give the nod to Stevenson, who can play center field, but more importantly provides speed. While Castro and Taylor are also fast, Stevenson could be used in a late-game situation to run for Lewis, who may be pretty limited.
Byron Buxton hasn’t played for the Twins since Aug. 1. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)Gleeman: I’d love for the Buxton situation to be different, but I just don’t see how the Twins can trust that he’s an asset in the playoffs. He’s been on the injured list for two months, wasn’t very productive before that, and barely got any rehab action because his knee didn’t cooperate. There’s no way he’d have a starting role, and even giving him a bench spot would just be hoping for one Kirk Gibson-style miracle swing.
This decision is why I’d go with 11 pitchers, but if the Twins are taking 12, then I honestly believe Stevenson is the better use of the final bench spot. Every time I see him chug around the bases — like he did Friday, scoring the game-winning run off the bench — I’m more convinced he has to be in. Stevenson has elite speed and he’s an aggressive base stealer who will take off even if the situation isn’t perfect. That has huge value, especially if Castro is already in the game with a bigger role.
It would be amazing if Buxton could be part of the playoff roster, and there would be no better story than him coming off the bench to deliver a clutch hit late. But the odds of that happening are slim given everything we’ve seen health-wise all season, and Stevenson has the tools to make at least some impact each game. Injuries suck.
Starting pitchers (3)
In: Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan
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Others in consideration: Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda
Hayes: This seemed trickier when Maeda pitched 3 1/3 innings in relief Thursday, but the Twins are going to use him in the bullpen while still keeping him stretched out for a potential later-round start. If they advance without needing to use Maeda in relief, they could easily start him in the American League Division Series opener. Same for Ober.
Gleeman: This has been Ryan’s job to lose and he’s probably pitched just well enough to avoid doing so, although it’s been a while since he’s looked as sharp as he did before the midseason groin injury. “Game 3 starter” is a big label, but Ryan is almost sure to have a short leash and Maeda could be the first reliever out of the bullpen, likely for multiple innings. It would be all hands on deck with the season on the line.
Relievers (9)
In: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Kenta Maeda, Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, Kody Funderburk
Others in consideration: Dallas Keuchel, Josh Winder
Gleeman: Imagine telling someone before the season that the Twins could choose to leave Buxton off the playoff roster in favor of Stevenson and Funderburk. And yet, a decent argument can certainly be made that a pinch runner and a second lefty reliever have clearer paths to usefulness. Funderburk could be especially needed if they face the Astros or Rangers, who have some very scary lefty sluggers.
Within the bullpen hierarchy, I’m curious to see how much faith remains in Jax, how willing they are to trust Stewart right off the injured list and whether Varland’s high-octane raw stuff outweighs his lack of relief experience. It’s potentially a very good, deep bullpen, but it’s also full of questions about health and role changes. And given the front office’s lack of offseason and trade deadline bullpen pickups, there’s a lot riding on the answers.
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Hayes: Simply because he recently returned, I feel like Stewart has more questions than Varland that can be answered quickly, but still must be. The rust needs to be shaken off faster than with others in the ‘pen who have had longer to acclimate.
I’m sold on Varland, who was somewhat reluctant to be in the role when he first learned about it. But I think being a badass for an entire month — and knowing the plan is for him to revert to starting next season — has allowed Varland to lean into it a bit and dominate. The other day he told Rocco Baldelli and Falvey he’s digging the role and understands why they put him there for now.
Varland’s stuff is electric, playing up as a reliever. His already low walk rate is down and he’s averaging 12.75 strikeouts per nine innings in relief. Batters who hit above .300 on the cutter in May/June are hitting .118 against it in September. Same for the fastball.
This group sets up really well with power arms, which is necessary in the playoffs. It’s easier to blow teams away than trick them. Love the idea that Varland or Paddack could be used for two to three innings and then be free to rest for a few days. Is there some risk? Of course. But the makings of a good bullpen are in place.
(Top photo of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis: Ron Schwane / Getty Images)
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